Is there life after Medupi?

“South Africa will need to build two or three power stations the size of Medupi in the next 20 years to ensure enough power supply,” predicts Accenture energy executive, Ken Robinson.
Robinson has worked largely with Eskom over the past 12 years and has been involved in many of the strategic challenges of the industry, notably the possible future scenarios in infrastructure involving Eskom, municipalities and independent power producers (IPPs).
"Some 25% of SA’s future energy capacity will be from new coal-fired power stations. I expect that Eskom will unveil plans for a new power station sometime next year. I also expect it will be a coal-fired station, simply because coal-powered technology has been proven, while nuclear is uncertain - nuclear and renewable are also expensive.”
In answer to whether he thinks the third power station will be built in Lephalale or at least the Waterberg, Robinson said that it all depends on water. “There is undoubtedly enough coal to supply another power station in the area, but government needs to take into consideration the availability of enough water for a new power station and also for the possible influx of people into the area.
Chief engineer for the Department of water affairs, Ockie van den Berg, agrees that water will be the deciding factor. “Government needs the new power station up and running by 2018 to avoid power cuts, but a decision on where it will be built has not been made. Water remains a hurdle for all large industry development in the Waterberg; there are many developments on hold because of a shortage of water.”
Northern News previously reported on the Mokolo-Crocodile Water Augmentation Project (MCWAP), an initiative of the department of water affairs to supply enough water for future developments in the Waterberg. Phase 1 of the project will supply water from Mokolo dam through a parallel pipeline from the Mokolo dam to the Steenbokpan area. Water delivery is expected in July 2013. Further phases of the project are expected to be constructed after 2013 – these will include a transfer scheme from the Crocodile West River at Vlieëpoort near Thabazimbi to the Lephalale area. According to Van den Berg, Phase 2 of the project is yet to be funded. “Government has indicated it does not have the financial capacity to fund the second phase of the project. The projected cost of R9-billion will have to be sought from other financiers for the project to materialize.”
Van den Berg says the completion of the MCWAP will open up the way for Eskom to build its third major coal-fired power station, possibly next to Medupi. This prediction comes despite the government’s recent commitments to a less carbon-intensive economy.
In the run-up to the 17th UN Framework Convention on Climate Change Conference of the Parties, or COP17, starting in Durban next week, the Department of Energy concluded its first bidding window to procure 3725MW of renewable capacity from IPPs.
According to an article in Business Live, the government has undertaken to build six new nuclear plants and add 17 800MW of renewable energy to SA's grid by 2030.
But Robinson said an honest assessment of targets to reduce carbon emissions indicate that building a third coal-fired power station is probably the best way to meet the country’s short-term energy needs.
The fact that Eskom owns 1 200 houses in Lephalale and a statement recently by Medupi project manager Roman Crookes that these houses will not be sold when Medupi is completed, but rather be used for future projects in Lephalale, might indicate that a third power station could indeed be built in right here in this growing Bushveld town.